When it comes to economics there’s theory and there’s reality. Many Trump supporters say he created the “strongest economy in history” but that’s simply not true. Trump simply rode President Obama’s wave, enhancing it through deregulation and Fed rate cuts as the Obama’s momentum slowed. Had it not been for Covid, his pseudo-prosperity would have lasted through the first term and would have surely got him re-elected. Throughout the whole Trump presidency I saw businesses steadily closing leaving tons of people unemployed. I became so obsessed with the inordinate amount of empty commercial properties that I began documenting the reality on the ground, which was completely opposite of what economists were saying. My logic was, as it still is today, if a country is doing well economically, one would see new businesses opening and commercial properties populated. Even with ecommerce competing with brick and mortar businesses, there should still be activity taking place in commercial buidings. You can’t buy smoothies, get your hair done, do crossfit or take your family out to dinner online. Additionally, prior to the COVID19 pandemic, America had not yet optimized working from home, so during the Trump presidency when I documented all the empty commercial space, even more businesses than today had gone belly up.
I made several videos showing America’s commercial barrenness during the Trump presidency. I became obsessed with it. I even made a video during a Trump rally in Beverly Hills, where I walked directly from the rally to the surrounding Rodeo Drive-area streets, showing all the empty storefronts and failed businesses. Many were empty before COVID19 so we can’t blame the pandemic. This brings me to my point; although Joe Biden’s economy has improved, many of these storefronts are still empty today.
The robust economy that Biden’s touting doesn’t appear to be real.
While the economy has improved, it’s only thriving on paper. A truly vigorous economy fills commercial storefronts with new entrepreneurs ready to take their shot at business. Given that many of those people are working online, there are many businesses that are simply incompatible with virtual infrastructure. Eyebrow threading, tattoo parlors, auto mechanics and smog check shops all need physical space to do business. Trust me, there are plenty enough eager entrepreneurs ready to make the United States not look like a bleak business ghost town.
I suspect that at the end of Russia-Ukraine conflict the economy will get a boost followed by a major crash. Our government is pulling and ever shortening supply of strings to avoid an inevitable financial disaster that will be bigger than the Great Recession of 2008. In fact this upcoming economic crash will be the 2008 crisis plus the damage from not properly fixing it. The restart of business with Russia will give the illusion of economic health and many will invest. However, absent America creating a new innovative, revolutionary product of service, we are in for a terrible awakening.
Housing is more expensive than ever. A house in Watts, California, the incubator of LA gang culture, will
cost you a half-million dollars right now. Single family homes in the ‘hood are selling in upwards of $700,000. At the same time, rents are astronomically high. A one-bedroom/one-bathroom apartment costs $1800, or 129 hours of a minimum wage earner’s monthly wages (full-time work is 160 hours). Something has got to give.
In December, California’s eviction moratorium will end. Although there’s talk of giving them a year to catch up back rent, the work landscape has already changed. With a looming recession, there simply won’t be enough jobs and non-paying renters will be evicted; property owners will either be left high and dry or paid by the government in depreciated, fiat, printed, paper money. I have a feeling the mortgage moratorium will leave banks in the same way, where the Fed will just print up what home owners owe them. Considering the banks are lending money hand-over-fist to developers to develop properties to default on then rebuy for pennies on the dollar in the next round of capitalism, many will, absent government intervention, become insolvent. The Dollar’s weakness will get worse and with crypto contending with it, perhaps the world will move to a new reserve currency, like the Yuan.
Joe Biden’s latest budget will cost America $5,800,000,000,000. That’s nearly six TRILLION dollars. That is 414.3 trillion hours of minimum wage labor. This would mean approximately 216 MILLION American minimum wage workers would have to work full-time for a year to pay for this budget. Or more to the point, America would have to enslave 216 MILLION people of minimum wage labor value for a whole year just to pay for this one budget. Our population is currently 329 million. Something is clearly wrong with our spending. We still haven’t paid for Larry Kudlow’s $6 TRILLION COVID19 spending. You might be thinking, “Everyone doesn’t make minimum wage.” Well, while Joe Biden’s budget is $5.8 TRILLION, the IRS only collected $3.86 TRILLION in taxes in 2021, which means $1.94 trillion will be on America’s credit card if America collects the same in tax revenue in 2022. Joe Biden’s 2021 deficit was a $2.7 Trillion improvement from Trump’s the prior year.
I feel that theoretical prosperity in the form of great jobs reports and crafty budgeting are a fragile and thin layer supporting irresponsible spending, a pending mortgage crisis, a stasis of government-supported, non-paying renters and a weakening dollar. This situation is just like the Afghanistan War pullout; there’s no pretty way to end this situation. We have played a losing hand and just as the Taliban had leverage in how America licked its wounds and retreated from the pointless war we created, our debtors worldwide are waiting for the moment we either weaken to the point they can strike a decisive blow, or simply watch us collapse under the weight of our massive debt. Aside from robbing another country, I have no idea how we will get out of this. We’ve been robbing Peter to pay Paul since 1971. Other countries are simply positioning themselves to devour our remains.
America elects politicians because they are supposed to be the best thinkers and policy innovators. I just don’t see how perpetual budget deficits and throttling our crash course to insolvency momentum is innovative. Apparently most of indebted America can make these same policy decisions so why do we elect people who do something we can do ourselves. Our elected politicians, Republican and Democrat, have yet to produce any new innovative ideas to make us less beholden to foreign interests. There’s not one economic trailblazer like an Alexander Hamilton in our government today and now Lawmakers’ contemplative and innovative stagnation leaves the American economy so weak that any attempt to raise the interest rate so we can pay our bills will result in our economy dying. It’s like adding more and more weighty features to a car model without upgrading the engine for more horsepower. We’re screwed.